Below we have posted (with permission) John Goodman’s analysis on ObamaCare health care reform.
There have been 8 versions of ObamaCare. The numbers below are estimates made for one or more of them. We believe they are still in the ballpark, and we will update as more information becomes available.
“If you like the plan you are in you can keep it.”
19 million Number of people predicted to lose their employer plan (Lewin Group) 8 to 9 million Number of people predicted to lose their employer plan (CBO) $11,543 Employer incentive to drop coverage for a $30,000 a year worker with family [Tax subsidy in the exchange minus tax subsidy at work minus $2,000 fine] (IRET) 8.5 million Number of seniors and disabled people at risk of losing their Medicare Advantage plan (Medicare Chief Actuary) 3 million Additional people who will likely lose Medicare Advantage plan benefits (Medicare Chief Actuary) $816 Average annual benefit loss for 11 million seniors and disabled in Medicare Advantage plans (CBO) 33 million Number of people in traditional Medicare at risk of losing access to care because of $523 billion in cuts in Medicare spending (Medicare Chief Actuary) 20% Fraction of hospitals that would become unprofitable after Medicare spending cuts (Medicare Chief Actuary) “There will be no tax increases for anyone who earns less than $200,000.”
73 million Number of people who earn less than $200,000 who will see their tax bill rise (Joint Committee on Taxation) 40% Tax rate on “Cadillac” plans (Reconciliation Summary) 2.3% Hidden tax on wheelchairs and other medical supplies (CBO update) $27 billion Hidden “medicine cabinet” tax on drugs (Reconciliation Summary) 10% Tax on tanning salons (Reconciliation Summary) $60 billion Hidden health insurance tax (Reconciliation Summary) “Health insurance reform is…about creating a climate where our entrepreneurs and small businesses can succeed [and] about giving you the chance to prosper and grow.”
$100 million Cost of ObamaCare mandates for Caterpillar, Inc. in the first year alone (Caterpillar, Inc.) 60% Implicit marginal tax rate for workers earning as little as $25,000 (IRET) 65% Implicit marginal tax rate for families earning as little as $50,000 (IRET) 0.9% New payroll tax on the wages of entrepreneurs and small business owners (Reconciliation Summary) 3.8% New tax on the capital income of entrepreneurs and small business owners (Reconciliation Summary) “The average family will save $2,500 in health care costs by the time I complete my first term as President of the United States.”
111% Premium increase for individual insurance (AHIP) 54% Premium increase for individual insurance (BlueCross BlueShield) 106% Premium increase for individual insurance (Wellpoint) $2,100 Premium increase for the average family (CBO) “Over the past year the House and the Senate have been working on an effort to provide health insurance reform that lowers costs …”
$220 billion Rise in national health care spending over the next 10 years(Medicare Chief Actuary) “… that guarantees access to care …”
15 million Number of new people added to Medicaid, where care is increasingly rationed and where provider choice is increasingly restricted. (CBO) 0 Number of new doctors and nurses trained and number of new hospitals built to meet the needs of 32 million newly-insured (CBO) ” … and enhances the quality of health care for all Americans.”
24 million Number of people who will enter a health insurance exchange where health plans will have an incentive to underprovide to the sick. (CBO/NCPA)
19 million Number of people predicted to lose their employer plan (Lewin Group) 8 to 9 million Number of people predicted to lose their employer plan (CBO) $11,543 Employer incentive to drop coverage for a $30,000 a year worker with family [Tax subsidy in the exchange minus tax subsidy at work minus $2,000 fine] (IRET) 8.5 million Number of seniors and disabled people at risk of losing their Medicare Advantage plan (Medicare Chief Actuary) 3 million Additional people who will likely lose Medicare Advantage plan benefits (Medicare Chief Actuary) $816 Average annual benefit loss for 11 million seniors and disabled in Medicare Advantage plans (CBO) 33 million Number of people in traditional Medicare at risk of losing access to care because of $523 billion in cuts in Medicare spending (Medicare Chief Actuary) 20% Fraction of hospitals that would become unprofitable after Medicare spending cuts (Medicare Chief Actuary) “This is not about big government …”
16,500 Additional IRS auditors needed to enforce the legislation (Ways and Means Minority Report) “This legislation will protect families …”
$6,000 to $10,000 Marriage penalty if two $32,000-a-year workers say “I do.” (Ways and Means Minority Report) “We are going to get rid of the special deals …”
$7,300 Extra exemption from the Cadillac premium tax for members of labor unions. (Ways and Means Minority Report) “This bill will reduce the federal deficit …”
$562 billion Increase in the deficit after removing budget gimmicks and unrealistic tax increases and budget cuts relegated to future Congresses (CBO former director)
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